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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a simple pattern. It frequently serves as a kind of mea culpa. We regret we underestimated your franchise in our pre-campaign forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the skipper who engineered the largest turnaround receives the prize. In reality, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or just the most shocking shock.

However the latest competition is fundamentally unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference winners fading and recent underperformers ascending in unison. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been afforded the chance to display his rare talent. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a lucky run – it's consistent dominance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the scheme rather than improvising. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's image: a physical ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that frees wide receiver targets consistently. Williams has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been able to create big plays out of nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost each gamble – overhauling the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning the QB into a timing-based thrower – has succeeded. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of expectations he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not just to be a offensive dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a ordinary year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But the current is not a typical year!

The area where his case comes a bit into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense currently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously unreliable. Coaches can focus on ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable spot to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around football of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has nailed the leadership aspects, which wasn't a given following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching mix of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but often fails in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a their job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an initial strong start, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags stumbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped chasing home-run answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB choice.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the season in October. Instead, it made it. By the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP contender. He has regressed since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still