Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have analysed the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got something to learn from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
